A post on X from 7 December has gone viral with over 100,000 views claiming that an episode of The Simpsons has predicted a high magnitude earthquake on 10 December. According to the post, which includes images purportedly taken from the show, an episode broadcast in 2023 depicted a “great fracture” happening in Tokyo – with the date “12.10” clearly written on a calendar.The images posted with the viral claim show Simpsons characters in various Japanese settings – including Mount Fuji in flames, the Tokyo cityscape split in two, and a calendar reading “12.10” with Tokyo Tower in the background.

Given that a 7.5 magnitude earthquake did hit Japan late on 8 December, this post has garnered a great deal of speculation and reshares – both amongst Japanese and English-speaking users. Comments discuss The Simpson’s alleged history of prescience and others (including the original poster) speculate that the earthquake was “intentionally caused” by shadowy entities such as the freemasons.

According to what we could find, there is a Simpsons episode based in Japan – “Thirty Minutes over Tokyo.” It aired in 1999 rather than 2023 and is one of only two Simpsons episodes that never aired in Japan. It is still banned in Japan and is even absent from the Japanese Disney+ catalogue. Because of its relative difficulty to access for free, the exact contents of the episode are not widely circulated online. This makes the claim’s assertions about the episode harder to disprove by a quick google search and has led to some believing the images (particularly the one with the “12.10” date) are taken directly from the show.

We scanned the episode on Disney+ and although the episode features many iconic Japanese locations and products (from Hello Kitty, to a slapstick scene with then-Emperor Akihito which is what got the episode banned), it does not make any predictions of an earthquake – much less offer an expected date. We tried to match the claim post’s images to the actual episode and were also unable to do so.

A broader reverse search across the internet also yielded nothing, leading is us to suspect doctoring. We then carried out a simple keyword search using Japanese on Google and YouTube, which finally led us to both the source of this claim’s images and a whole glut of Japanese conspiracy content about The Simpsons.

One video in particular has over 40,000 views and appears to be the source of the claim post’s images. We were able to directly match all four images to frames from this specific video.The video seems to be piecing together snippets from different Simpsons episodes to theorise about Tokyo being destroyed in 2025. And, assessing the video as a whole, all the Japan-related graphics appear to be AI-generated to support their theory.For instance, the Simpsons characters appear misshaped in some graphics, and misspelled English text or gibberish scribbles further suggest an AI source. The viral claim post seems to have picked the most convincing graphics to share, while omitting those with clearer signs of AI-generation.

Therefore, the Simpsons did not predict the recent earthquake in Japan – images claimed to be from the show are instead AI-generated as part of a wider conspiracy theory about planned natural disasters. And, while an earthquake did hit Northeast Japan on 8 December, its epicentre was Aomori, which is in Northeastern part of the country. It did not, as the claim asserts, seriously impact Tokyo where only minor tremors were felt – neither did it “fracture” Japan. Around 51 injuries have been confirmed in the Hokkaido, Aomori and Iwate provinces and a tsunami warning was issued but lifted by 9 December. The impacted areas saw power outages and some delays to air and train travel, but no serious damage to  infrastructure or nuclear plant facilities. A series of strong aftershocks were recorded on 11 December and Japan remains on alert for subsequent quakes, with a megaquake (over 8.0 magnitude) warning issued for Hokkaido and Sanriku.

 

We therefore give this claim a rating of false

Black Dot Research has conducted numerous fact-checks on claims about the Simpsons predicting events such as 9/11, the Baltimore Bridge collapse, and the Titan tragedy. This case is yet another example of a persisting conspiracy being applied to a topical natural disaster.

We also found this claim interesting because of the cross-language element – with Japanese users pushing the conspiracy and it subsequently spreading to the English-speaking users. The language barrier and the extra steps required fact-check the claim bolsters its spread. We have seen it being shared in various chat groups and enveloped into existing conspiracies about planned disasters and other global power struggles.Claims that require more than a simple search to verify (due to reasons such as paywalls or language barriers) are extremely challenging. While not everyone has the means to perform detailed fact-checks, one red flag for misinformation can be ambiguous answers to basic searches. Approaching such claims with scepticism instead of sharing or spreading them can be key to stemming their virality.