We came across the posts on the following topic on the social media platform X:
The posts suggest that China has issued a state of emergency as an epidemic overwhelms hospitals and crematoriums. They include videos of people wearing masks in what appear to be hospitals, and the presence of text in Mandarin in the video overlay implies the location is in China.
Several of the posts indicate that the epidemic is a result of multiple viruses spreading, while some accounts are calling for travel restrictions on China to prevent the further spread of the epidemic and a repeat of scenarios from the COVID-19 pandemic.
One of the accounts carries the profile name @COVID19_disease and the display name SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19). SARS-CoV-2 is the name of the virus that caused the COVID-19 pandemic. The account, which is located in Medellin, Colombia, claims to post updates on pathogens and other outbreaks. However, we found no evidence that suggests the account is an authoritative source for information about disease outbreaks.
Virus Outbreaks
When we conducted a keyword search on a state of emergency and virus outbreaks in China, we found that news reports covering the virus outbreaks were plentiful. Several of these reports pointed to human metapneumovirus (hMPV) as the virus primarily responsible for the outbreak.
Such reports were published by The Independent, ABC News, DW News, and Newsweek, along with a number of Indian media outlets. Singapore’s CNA also reported on the rising trend in respiratory infections and the efforts of the authorities to set up monitoring systems to handle ‘unknown pathogens’. However, the article did not indicate whether any unknown pathogens had been uncovered. These details were reported similarly across the news sources.
hMPV
hMPV is a respiratory virus that can cause symptoms similar to the common cold and influenza, such as cough, fever, nasal congestion and shortness of breath. Unlike COVID-19, there is no vaccine or treatment for HMPV, which has seen a surge in cases in northern China, primarily in children under the age of 14.
Unlike a novel virus such as COVID-19, hMPV is already in circulation in populations in China, the US and other countries. As such, there is likely to be higher levels of herd immunity against it.
The spread of hMPV, along with other viruses that cause respiratory infections such as rhinovirus, coincides naturally with the onset of colder weather, and it is also accelerated by the increased human contact in indoor spaces during the winter season.
According to the WHO, while some cases can lead to bronchitis or pneumonia, most people infected with hMPV have mild upper respiratory symptoms and recover after a few days.
No State of Emergency
When we conducted a keyword search among news publications, we did not find any evidence to support the claims of a state of emergency in China apart from one article in Telengana Today, a publication founded in 2024 based in the south of India that has no track record of reliable reporting..
We did, however, find that a few Chinese officials were quoted by news outlets commenting on the virus outbreak. In a 27 December press conference, the Chinese health official Kan Biao was quoted as saying that China was likely to see an increase in respiratory infectious diseases in the winter and spring, but that overall cases were expected to be fewer than the previous year.
This message was reiterated by foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning, who said on 3 January that ‘respiratory infections tend to peak during the winter season,’ and that ‘the diseases appear to be less severe and spread with a smaller scale compared to the previous year.’
Several experts interviewed by the media from a range of countries outside China, including in Australia, Europe and India, supported their message that the spread in HMPV and the other viruses were not unusual for the season, rather than the beginning of a major health emergency.
In addition, the ‘state of emergency’ claim had been investigated by the factchecking outlet Lead Stories, which found that there were no such announcements by China’s National Health Commission, the body responsible for public health matters, the State Council Information Office, the body responsible for public communication, or on the site of China’s official news agency, Xinhua.
The US Department of State China Travel Advisory and the US Embassy and Consulates emergency alerts also contained no mention of a state of emergency due to an epidemic, which would have been likely if it were true.
We visited each site and independently checked and verified that Lead Stories’ findings remained accurate.
A Repeat of Last Winter
In December 2023, Black Dot Research reported on claims of a ‘mystery respiratory illness’ that was spreading in China, leading to top Republicans in the US to push for a travel ban with China.
These concerns reached Singapore, leading to a question being posed in Parliament to the Minister of Health by Ms Joan Pereira, the MP for Tanjong Pagar GRC, regarding the measures being taken ‘in light of the pneumonia outbreak in China’.
At the time, we found the claims of the mystery illness and a new epidemic to be false, with the outbreaks due to a seasonal wave of known viruses hitting Chinese children especially hard in its first winter since lifting COVID-19 restrictions.
These findings mirrored the Ministry of Health’s reply in Parliament, which indicated that China’s surge in respiratory illnesses was expected after opening up and the experience of many countries, and that the illnesses were caused by common respiratory pathogens.
While the surge in infections this year cannot be attributed to having newly dropped lockdown restrictions, they do share the qualities of appearing during the winter season, and being the result of several known pathogens.
On 7 January, the World Health Organisation (WHO) published an update on their Disease Outbreak News page that included mentions of the rising trends of infections in China.
In the update, they said that in recent weeks detections of seasonal influenza, rhinovirus, RSV and hMPV had all increased, but that ‘the observed increase… is within the range expected for this time of the year during the Northern hemisphere winter’.
WHO officials were also in contact with Chinese health officials, and it had not received any reports of unusual outbreak patterns. Furthermore, Chinese authorities continued to report that the healthcare system was not overwhelmed and utilisation was in currently lower than this time last year, and no emergency declarations or responses had been triggered.
A Common Cold
We find that the claims in the posts mirror those made in similar circumstances last winter, raising fears of a new pandemic and the resulting responses despite the rise in infections being down primarily to natural seasonal factors.
While we first found these claims spreading on X, other factchecking outlets identified similar claims on other platforms. Lead Stories found these claims on Threads, while Politifact found them on Instagram.
While some of these posts may have spread organically due to people’s fears of a return to the events during the COVID-19, Lead Stories found that the Threads post cited unverified videos from a social media platform headquartered in New York associated with Falun Gong, the dissident spiritual movement that has been persecuted and banned in China.
The group has been identified to have been responsible for spreading disinformation regarding China on several occasions, including through media outlets it owns, such as NTD TV and The Epoch Times.
They also found that some of the videos used stock images and old footage of Beijing Children’s Hospital from 2023 when the patient load far exceeded capacity, though there was no proof that the hospital was currently overwhelmed.
As such, we find that the claim that China had declared a state of emergency and that there was a new epidemic emerging in the country to be false.
The rise in infections is due to natural seasonal factors in both China and the entire Northern hemisphere, and the viruses spreading, including hMPV, are known pathogens.
These claims were also investigated and found to be false by Lead Stories and Politifact.