Is the International Space Station leaking? Will it soon be urgently evacuated?

By November 7, 2024 Technology

We’ve seen headlines and reactions across social media claiming that the International Space Station (ISS) has a huge leak and astronauts on board have been warned about and are “braced for” possible evacuation.The ISS is the largest space station ever built and is a collaboration between the space agencies and contractors of 5 different countries – the USA, Russia, Europe, Japan, and Canada. It was first launched in 1998 and currently has 7 crew aboard. The ISS is slated to be de-orbited in around 6 years – at the end of 2030.

Since last week, news platforms such as the Daily Mail and The Express have been running several articles with alarming headlines about high-risk air leaks alongside potential urgent evacuations. Aside from these headlines which have been widely shared (often without even the accompanying articles and context linked), we dug a little further to find official sources from space agencies and other established news media. Based on our research, the recent sensationalist headlines stem from a report released in September 2024 by NASA’s Office of Inspector General (OIG) about the “Management of Risks to Sustaining ISS Operations through 2030.”
The report does highlight air leaks in a specific module within the Russian section of the ISS as an issue. This leak was identified in 2019 and is something the agencies and astronauts on board have been aware of and mitigating since then. According to the report, a new high leak rate of 3.7 pounds of air per day was recorded in April, which led to the leak being elevated to the highest level in NASA’s risk management system. NASA has since elaborated that its astronauts have been instructed to “remain on the US side of the ISS” when the hatch to the leaking area is open as a general safety measure.

The air inside the ISS is pressurised to 14.5 PSI to match atmospheric pressure at sea level on earth. This maintains a safe environment inside against the vacuum of space that the station exists in. When air leaks out of a space craft, the pressure inside drops. If the pressure drops to dangerously low levels (it would be very difficult for humans to safely survive long-term at under 7 PSI), this can pose great risks to the space crew on board.  However, while the risk assessment of the ISS leak is high, even the highest rate of leakage recorded has not reached a level which would pose a risk to the air pressure of the entire space station. The OIG report specifically points out that both NASA and their Russian counterparts say, “the Service Module Transfer Tunnel leak is not an immediate risk to the structural integrity of the Station, and there are no current concerns of long-term impacts to the overall structure.”

The report also notes that isolating or permanently closing the affected area altogether as a permanent solution would not impact the ability of the ISS to function – only reducing the number of cargo delivery ports by one and altering the amount of propellent needed to maintain its position. According to the report, there is no indication of any other leaks on the ISS.

Experts speaking to news outlets reporting in September and early October said the leaks constitute a challenge, but not an imminent disaster. However, subsequent reporting by media sites such as the Daily Mail has instead focused heavily on the worst-case scenario and potential evacuations – leaning in on the idea that astronauts onboard the ISS have been “told to be ready for potential evacuation” or are “braced for an urgent evacuation.”  The contrast between these headlines and the context of the same articles which acknowledge the “lack of threat to human life or integrity of the station” as depicted in the two images below from this piece in The Daily Mail, is striking.Therefore, while it is true that air leaks in a specific area of the ISS have been assessed and flagged as a high-risk issue by NASA, headlines and claims on social media that the space station is “braced for an urgent evacuation” without providing relevant context about the nature of the leak are misleading. We give this claim a rating of partly true.

The ISS and NASA have been under scrutiny in the public eye in the wake of two astronauts being stranded on the ISS after issues with the Boeing Starliner made it too risky for them to return to earth on it. We’ve seen this claim being used to further push the idea that NASA is risking the lives of their astronauts or that various space agencies are “in crisis.”

Partially true claims presented with misleading and sensationalised headlines only serve to increase anxieties and prevent the full picture from reaching the public. Considering the source of these headlines is therefore important. While platforms like The Daily Mail can offer a wide range of news and coverage on public-interest topics, it might also be beneficial to supplement such articles with other sources. In this case, we found articles also based on the OIG report that more accurately conveyed its content several weeks earlier – for instance the Scientific American, The Washington Post and Space.com.

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